Today's Scoop:

Hey friends, hope you had a good weekend. Don’t miss the last Weekly Scoop or this weekend’s Explained digging into the potential impacts of the hottest five years ever ahead of us.

Here’s what you need to know today…

1. US-China tensions are rising.

2. Debt ceiling talks aren’t going smoothly.

3. Economists say we’re likely already in a recession.

S&P 500: 4,192.63
1Mo: +1% | 1Yr: +6% | 5Yr: +54%

The market floated sideways again today as investors balanced optimistic forecasts from major corporations like Deere, Ford, and JP Morgan with worsening US-China tensions (see Micron scoop below).

Debt ceiling negotiations could be going better. Despite promises to finish talks by the end of last week, leaders in Washington are still scrambling to agree on terms to increase the country’s spending limit. President Biden cut his travel plans short and will meet with House Speaker McCarthy today. Any deal between them will still need to be approved by the House and the Senate before the government runs out of money as early as June 1st.

Economists say we might already be in a recession. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell for the 13th straight month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook. The group predicts a decline in economic activity starting this quarter, “leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.” Since there are only five weeks left until mid-2023, they’re saying the recession might have already started.[🤓]

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• Meta plans to release a Twitter clone for Instagram

• Micron named a national security threat by China

• American Airlines agrees to boost pilot pay by over 20%

• Morgan Stanley’s CEO plans to resign

• Exxon Mobil embraces the EV shift with lithium mining

(These links only work for 24 hours while the story is live)

Recession

For many of us, the word recession means economic crisis. The last two recessions were the most severe economic disasters of the last half-century. In 2008, the global financial system collapsed. In 2020, the global economy was completely shut down.

Not every recession is a financial crisis. Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. The economy grows, slows, and contracts. We're in unprecedented times, so it's hard to say what comes next, but financial commentators aren't necessarily talking about an impending economic collapse. A recession can be defined as two quarters of less economic production (GDP) than the previous. That technically occurred in the first half of 2022, but no one has named that an official recession yet because unemployment was at historic lows. Don’t get too hung up on the semantics. The critical thing to know is that people are worried about the economy, which leads to more businesses cutting back.

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