Our answer:
The next five years will be the hottest of all time, potentially pushing us past the critical threat temperature with disastrous consequences for much of the world. Many corporate leaders recognize the escalating urgency to address climate risks, and we need to pressure more to act.
Is this worse warming than we already knew?
Climate change is moving faster than we expected, and a shift in weather patterns later this year will worsen things. A new report from United Nations climate scientists predicted a 66% chance of the globe exceeding the critical temperature the Paris Agreement was trying to avoid, 1.5°C above the preindustrial levels, for the first time in an individual year between 2023-2027. That’s up from the 10% chance predicted for 2017-2021. The earth is already 1.2°C hotter, and while one year above 1.5°C may not trigger cataclysmic events, there’s a 32% chance the five-year average trends above that temperature. The Paris Agreement was hoping to cut global emissions to net zero by 2050 to keep us under that threshold, so it’s not going well.
Wrapping our heads around the consequences of rising temperatures is hard, but we can think about it as degrees of intensity for extreme weather systems - more intense drought, floods, storms, wildfires, and melting ice caps, leading to more death, disease, and species extinction. All of the extreme weather changes also have the power to create unknown problems that make it harder to exist on this planet, especially for those with the fewest resources. We don’t know what the worst tipping point will be.
What could happen?
Regardless of the temperature tipping points, the heat will be a problem. The next five years will be the hottest on record (98% likelihood), thanks to global warming. Either 2023 or 2024 is likely to be the hottest year ever, thanks to El Niño, a climate pattern that occurs every few years when the Pacific Ocean warms up, creating heatwaves and drought for the Americas.
Last summer, we highlighted the damage of record heat and drought across the US, Europe, and Asia. With temperatures expected to escalate further, we will need to prepare for the following:
More drought, leading to less food and more water scarcity: High temperatures of the past few years have already pushed the western United States into such a severe drought that the federal government has mandated seven states to cut their water use by 25%. The Colorado River basin, which provides water to 40 million Americans, fuels hydropower for eight states, provides critical resources to 30 Tribal Nations, and supports food production for the rest of the country, is already dangerously dry. The nation’s largest freshwater reservoir, Lake Mead, which powers the Hoover Dam, dried to around 25% of its capacity last year. Recent rain in California has helped, but by 2030, global water demand will outpace supply by more than 40%. The World Economic Forum has listed water crises among the top five global risks for the past seven years. The United Nations expects drought to displace 700 million people by 2030 and one in four children to live in areas with extreme water shortages by 2040.
More wildfires: It’s not going to be just a silent danger. The US wildfires of the past five years have been the most destructive on record, killing thousands, torching over 10 million acres with over 100,000 homes and buildings, and causing over $10B in damage. The next five years will be even hotter.
More health risks: Heat waves can cause several health problems, including heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and death. These impacts would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including the elderly, low-income communities, and people with chronic illnesses. More than 12% of households in the lowest income quartile have no access to air conditioning.
Heatwaves are a severe threat to public health and safety in America. They are becoming more common and more intense due to climate change, and they can cause death, destruction, and economic loss.
Do companies really care about this?
Corporate executives can’t ignore the impacts of heat and drought on their businesses, and the consequences are rising. There’s increased pressure and regulation to reduce carbon emissions and hopefully slow global warming, but the impacts are already here. The carbon emissions work is about the hope that it won’t get worse.
Reducing water use and waste is a critical priority. The agricultural industry faces the most significant repercussions from drought, consuming roughly 70 percent of the global water supply and wasting about 60 percent of that. Beverage companies like Constellation Brands have had brewery construction blocked by local voters over water supply concerns. But it’s not just the obvious stuff. Two-thirds of the largest 2,000 global corporations face significant water-related risks, and many have announced pledges to go “water-positive," returning more water to the earth in scarce areas than they take out. Manufacturing companies like 3M have committed to reducing water use at their facilities and treating their wastewater. Mexico rejected Tesla’s plans to build a new factory until it agreed to use recycled water throughout the manufacturing process. In water-scarce factory locations, PepsiCo installs wastewater treatment onsite to recycle 80% of their water, then trucks more water in.
High temperatures and drought affect tech companies too. The record-setting heatwave in Britain forced Google to shut down its London data centers, which need to be kept cool and require a lot of power. Microsoft has started submerging its data centers in the ocean. Water scarcity drives up costs for smartphone and computer chip manufacturers that depend on water to remove impurities. Google and Microsoft have started to use recycled wastewater to cool their data centers.
Executives can’t ignore the risks to their people either. High temperatures have led to severe hospitalizations and deaths across industries, from farm workers in California to delivery truck drivers for UPS.
How can our money decisions make an impact?
The heat is already coming, and unless you’re a billionaire, you can’t really get out of the kitchen. We can reduce our own water and energy use, but the biggest influence on our future lies in the hands of corporate executives. We must use our voices and dollars to pressure companies to take responsibility for their impact on the climate. As the business impacts from higher temperatures grow, so does our potential influence.
We can demand action in three forms: disclosure, pledges, and follow-through. Consider these three points of accountability around water usage, carbon emissions, and labor safety conditions when evaluating where you work, shop, and invest.
You’re doing great,
The Scoop Team
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