Wednesday's Scoop: Sleepy🌤️

Hey friend - more exciting updates coming for you with the new app. We had a big breakthrough today. Make sure you’re an Insider.

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments…

1. Small businesses are struggling.

2. Home buying is picking up as mortgage rates creep lower.

3. Solar has become America’s new favorite energy source.

Unemployment Rate: 3.9%
^{Still near the lowest rate in 50+ years}

Small businesses aren’t feeling as good about the economy as the big corporations. The National Federation of Independent Business sentiment index fell to a nine-month low, with many business owners concerned about the lingering possibility of a recession. Fewer are planning any expansion, wage increases, or more hiring. Inflation has slowed, but supply and borrowing costs keep rising. It’s gotten a little easier to find workers, which has been a massive challenge across industries.

Global Energy Emissions: 37.4B metric tons of CO₂
^{An all-time high, up 1.1% from 2022. (IEA)}

Solar is America’s favorite new energy source, accounting for more than half of all new electricity capacity added to the national grid in 2023 for the first time ever. The Solar Energy Industries Association and analytics firm Wood MacKenzie reported a record 32.4 gigawatts of new solar capacity came online last year, a 51% increase over 2022. Lower costs for materials and clearer supply chains drove the surge. Texas and California led the way with massive utility-scale installations powering millions of homes.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 6.8%
^{That’s up from 6.7% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Home Price: $379,100
^{That’s up from $361K a year ago. (NAR)}

A slight drop in mortgage rates has energized home buyers. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.84% last week, down significantly from the peak of 8% in October but double what it was two years ago. The number of mortgage applications to purchase a new home rose 5% last week, and refinances jumped 12%. Home sales activity is still down from last year but has picked up quickly in the past few weeks.

The Market: ⬇️ -0.2%
S&P 500: 5,165.31
1Mo: +3% | 1Yr: +32% | 5Yr: +83%

The market drifted lower on Wednesday after blasting to a new all-time high yesterday. Economic data has started to signal a more significant slowdown, and investors wonder how long the AI enthusiasm can fuel the rally.