Wednesday's Scoop: Circling 🌥️

Hey friend - I’ve still got the Gold Zone on in the background, so here are your Olympics updates:

• The US has a commanding lead in overall silver and bronze medals but only one more gold (as of this afternoon) than China.

• The USA vs Poland men’s volleyball quarterfinal was a nail-biter. (No spoilers)

• The USA vs. Australia men’s water polo quarterfinal went into a shootout. (No spoilers)

• Triathletes are legit getting sick from swimming in the Seinne.

• Pole vault is particularly heartbreaking to watch. Idk why.

• Steeplechase has to be the most absurd competition ever — a race on a track where every fourth hurdle has a surprise puddle.

• I watched my first field hockey shootout — pretty radical.

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments:

1. Mortgage rates dipped last week, bringing some relief to homeowners.

2. Regulators are cracking down on money-transfer fraud.

3. Earlier springs are threatening food supplies.

Global Energy Emissions: 37.4B metric tons of CO₂
^{An all-time high, up 1.1% from 2022. (IEA)}

Earlier springs are threatening food supplies. Plants and their pollinators are falling out of sync amid rising global temperatures, leading to earlier blooming and late pollinator emergence. A study led by Elsa Godtfredsen at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory shows flowers in the US blooming 23 days earlier on average. This timing mismatch affects food crops, with global fruit and nut production declining by 3-5% annually due to inadequate pollination. If this trend continues, it could worsen food shortages, especially in vulnerable regions. The findings highlight the critical need to slow global warming and for climate-resilient agricultural practices to support pollinators and maintain crop yields.

Inflation Rate: +3.0% (YoY), -0.1% (MoM)
^{Policymakers aim for 2% YoY inflation. (June CPI)}

Regulators are cracking down on money-transfer fraud. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is investigating whether big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are doing enough to help customers who fall victim to scams on their money transfer platform, Zelle. Zelle has become a significant player in digital payments, but a surge in scam complaints has come with its growth. The CFPB wants to know if banks are proactively shutting down scammer accounts and vetting customers properly. While the banks say they already go beyond what’s required by law, this probe will determine if more needs to be done to protect users.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 6.6%
^{That’s down from 6.9% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Home Price: $426,900
^{That’s up from $410K a year ago. (Existing Homes, NAR)}

Mortgage rates dipped last week, bringing some relief to homeowners. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.55%, the lowest since May 2023. This drop comes after policymakers hinted at potential interest rate cuts next month as cost-of-living inflation and hiring both slow. As a result, refinancing applications jumped to their highest level in two years. However, home purchase activity only increased slightly due to the ongoing high prices and low inventory of homes for sale.

The Market: ⬇️ -0.8%
S&P 500: 5,199.50
1Mo: -7% | 1Yr: +15% | 5Yr: +78%

The market crept lower on Wednesday as investors grappled with the uncertainty of the path forward for the economy. Corporate financial reports this week have highlighted slower spending and less travel while casting doubt on the available opportunities in artificial intelligence. Companies seem to be spending a lot on it, but reports from companies like Super Micro show that the whole tech industry isn't benefitting from the explosive profits Nvidia has seen.