Wednesday's Scoop: Rolling☀️

Hey friend - if you’re in NYC, there are still a few spots left for this climate action dinner tomorrow. I’d love to see some of you there!

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments:

1. Companies increased hiring last month.

2. The fall in mortgage rates paused last week.

3. People aren’t that interested in buying cars right now.

Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
^{Relatively low, but up from 50-year lows}

Companies increased hiring last month. According to ADP's National Employment Report, private sector payrolls saw a decent increase in September, with 143,000 new jobs added, thanks to growth in the construction and hospitality sectors. This was slightly higher than economists expected, reflecting some stability in the hiring market. However, wages aren’t growing as quickly anymore, particularly for job changers, with annual pay increases for those moving jobs falling to 6.6% from 7.3% in August. Small businesses, which have led hiring in recent years, shed 8,000 jobs. Strikes in industries like manufacturing could cloud the job numbers for October, but the increase in hiring is a good sign that the economy isn’t slipping into a downturn.

Inflation Rate: +2.5% (YoY), +0.2% (MoM)
^{Policymakers aim for 2% YoY inflation. (August CPI)}

People aren’t that interested in buying cars right now. New vehicle sales took a hit in the third quarter, with top US automakers feeling the pressure from fewer selling days, higher prices, and higher borrowing costs. General Motors reported a 2.2% decline in sales, with weaker demand for big pickups like the Silverado, while Toyota saw an 8% drop despite stocking up ahead of the East Coast port strikes. Drivers are shifting toward more affordable vehicles, with compact SUVs and trucks like Ford's Maverick and Chevrolet's Trax in high demand. Overall, September vehicle sales reached 1.17 million units, marking an annual rate of 15.77 million. As borrowing costs fall further, we may see more interest in big-ticket purchases.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 6.1%
^{That’s down from 7.5% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Home Price: $416,700
^{That’s up from $404K a year ago. (Existing Homes, NAR)}

Mortgage rates ticked up slightly last week, cooling off the rush to refinance for a lower monthly payment. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 6.14%, up from 6.13%. This slight increase led to a 3% drop in refinance applications, though they are still up 186% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, mortgage applications for home purchases rose by 1% for the week and are 9% higher than last year, with more homes on the market boosting buyer interest. Home prices are still near record highs, but declining mortgage costs have enticed some buyers.

The Market: ⬆️ +0.01%
S&P 500: 5,709.54
1Mo: +3% | 1Yr: +33% | 5Yr: +93%

The market didn't do much on Wednesday as investors waited to see how things would develop in the Middle East. It's not clear yet whether or how much further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran would affect the US economy.