Tuesday's Scoop: Holding🌤️

Hey friend - thanks for your patience today. We come with gifts, though!

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Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments…

1. Small businesses are more pessimistic than they have been in over a decade.

2. US-China relations show signs of improvement.

3. The planet has suffered record heat for ten months straight.

Unemployment Rate: 3.8%
^{Still near the lowest rate in 50+ years}

Small business owners keep losing hope for an economic rebound. In March, the National Federation of Independent Business’s (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell to its lowest level in 12 years. It was the 27th straight month of pessimism as small businesses struggled to get back to normal after the pandemic. Small firms still face rising costs for supplies and demands for higher wages. Hiring plans among small business owners are the lowest since May 2020, and hiring managers express challenges in filling open roles.

U.S.-China economic relations are showing signs of improvement, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's recent trip to China marking a step forward. Yellen's visit aimed to address economic imbalances and the issue of manufacturing overcapacity, urging China to boost domestic demand. While there, she engaged in constructive dialogues, reflecting a willingness from China to work through differences and stabilize bilateral ties. Despite these positive strides, tensions remain over trade practices and policies, underscoring the complexities in navigating this pivotal international relationship.

Global Energy Emissions: 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂
^{An all-time high, up 1.1% from 2022. (IEA)}

The world is on a hot streak, and it isn’t good. The European Union's climate change monitoring service reported global temperatures in March were the highest on record for the month, marking the tenth straight month of all-time high heat. The twelve months ending in March was also the warmest one-year period on record, with the global average temperature at 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial averages. International policymakers have been working to keep warming to less than 1.5 degrees by 2050. Drought has unleashed record wildfires in Venezuela and wiped out crops for millions in Southern Africa.

The Market: ⬆️ +0.1%
S&P 500: 5,209.91
1Mo: +2% | 1Yr: +27% | 5Yr: +79%

The market snoozed again today as investors waited for the big news to start tomorrow with the March inflation report and first-quarter corporate financial updates. Earnings season is nearly here.