Tuesday's Scoop: Lull☀️

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Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments:

1. Small business owners are doing a little better.

2. Extreme weather has been thrashing the global economy.

3. Rising HOA fees are making homeownership even less affordable.

Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
^{Relatively normal, low}

Small business owners feel a bit more optimistic as heading into the holiday season. The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in October to 93.7. That’s still below the 50-year average, likely due to policy uncertainty heading into the election. The Uncertainty Index jumped to a record high of 110 in October. Many owners are still grappling with low sales, unfilled job openings, and rising costs—23% cite inflation as their biggest problem, and 35% have positions they can't fill. This mixed outlook suggests that while larger companies may have returned to normal, small businesses still struggle with worker shortages and rising costs.

Global Energy Emissions: 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂
^{An all-time high, up 1.1% from 2022. (IEA)}

Extreme weather is thrashing the global economy. According to a new report by the International Chamber of Commerce, climate-related disasters have cost the global economy over $2 trillion in the past decade, with the US hardest hit at nearly $935 billion in losses. These figures are comparable to the financial crisis of 2008, highlighting the growing impact of warming global temperatures on the economy. Developing countries are especially vulnerable, as the cost of damage from a single severe weather event can exceed their entire annual economic production. For individuals, this translates to higher insurance premiums and potentially fewer affordable coverage options, particularly in areas prone to disasters like hurricanes and wildfires. The increasing frequency and severity of these events strain national economies and affect our daily lives, homes, and financial security.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 6.8%
^{That’s down from 7.9% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Existing Home Price: $404,500
^{That’s up from $393K a year ago. (NAR)}

Rising HOA fees are making homeownership even less affordable. According to the Foundation for Community Association Research, homeowners association (HOA) fees are rising faster than the average cost of living in many areas, with places like Seattle seeing fees more than double over the past year. These fees cover expenses like maintenance, insurance, and amenities, but the rising costs are stretching budgets, especially for new homeowners already dealing with expensive mortgage rates and higher property taxes. In 2024, about 9% of homeowners will pay more than $500 per month in HOA fees, up from 6% in 2020. If you're considering buying a home in a community with an HOA, it's essential to factor these escalating fees into your budget.

The Market:⬇️ -0.3%
S&P 500: 5,983.99
1Mo: +2% | 1Yr: +36% | 5Yr: +92%

On Tuesday, the market drifted lower for the first time in a week as investors took a breather from the dramatic rally. The first set of corporate financial reports through October have been positive, and the Federal Reserve reported that Americans aren't as worried about inflation.