Today's Scoop:

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Hey friends, here's what you need to know today...

1. Companies are cutting back open job postings.

2. There are still 1.7 available jobs for every unemployed worker.

3. Layoffs actually decreased in February, despite the headlines.

S&P 500: 4,100.601Mo: +1% | 1Yr: -9% | 5Yr: +57%

The market slumped today, taking a break from the recent positivity, as investors worried about a slowdown in the economy.

Companies are pulling back on hiring plans. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [🤓] showed a steep decline in available positions to 9.9 million in February. It's the most significant drop to the lowest number in over a year, causing concerns of a fast-moving economic slowdown.

There are still a lot of available jobs, arguably too many. It was a significant drop to 9.9 million, but pre-pandemic averages were around 7 million. There are 1.7 openings for every unemployed person. We're not in a worker shortage, but an over-demand. We have more people working now than before the pandemic. Policymakers have been trying to slow the economy from overheating and bring the demand for workers back into balance. So this is actually the plan working. Too much demand for too little supply is what creates inflation.

Fewer job postings didn't translate to more layoffs. The JOLTs report indicated total layoffs and discharges actually decreased in February. More people quit their jobs, which is a sign of a healthy economy. The workers hit by mass layoffs from tech companies perhaps either found jobs quickly or received enough severance to avoid filing for unemployment.

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Employment reports

There are four main reports people watch to understand trends in the labor market.

The main "jobs report" comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month. It highlights the unemployment rate, new jobs added, and wage growth.

The Labor Department also releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) each month, but on a one-month lag. That report helps us understand how many open positions there are, how many people quit their jobs, and how many were hired.

There's also a monthly private-sector survey from payroll services company ADP that doesn't include government jobs and the weekly initial unemployment claims (a proxy for layoffs) report from the Labor Department.