Today's Scoop:

Hey friends - Markets are closed on Monday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday commemorating the emancipation of enslaved African Americans on June 19, 1865.

Look out for our Weekly Scoop tomorrow, and then we’ll be back on Tuesday.

Here’s what you need to know today…

1. Layoffs stayed high last week.

2. Shoppers are still spending more than expected.

3. The manufacturing sector is still struggling but might be turning a corner.

S&P 500: 4,425.84
1Mo: +8% | 1Yr: +21% | 5Yr: +61%

The stock market floated to another new 13-month high today. Investors are chasing the optimism of avoiding a major recession. Big Tech is still leading the market. [🤓]

Layoffs stayed high last week. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 262,000, the highest level since October 2021. Layoffs and unemployment have been extremely low, so we’ll have to see if this is the start of a new trend of higher joblessness.

People are still spending, exceeding all expectations. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in April. Economists expected less spending, but consumers purchased more cars, garden equipment, furniture, and a range of other goods and services. A drop in fuel prices and spending at the gas station helped. Consumer spending powers two-thirds of the economy, so everyone watches it closely.

The manufacturing sector is still struggling but might be turning a corner. Two regional gauges of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserve indicated that supply chain disruptions and inflation have cleared up significantly. Sentiment is still negative in the Philadelphia region, but optimism rebounded in New York last month.

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• Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Bud Light loses top beer spot of 20+ years

• Live Nation & Ticketmaster agree to show all-in prices

• Activision Blizzard's Diablo IV breaks sales records

• Google employees fight back against return-to-office

• Sonos slashes 7% of its staff

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Big Tech & the S&P 500

The performance of Big Tech companies is critical to overall sentiment in the stock market. The Big Five - Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Nvidia are so enormous compared to every other company that the fluctuations of their value drive the changes of "The Market" as a whole.

The S&P 500 index is the primary way people track whether "The Market" is rising or falling. It's a number that follows the value of the biggest 500 public companies in the US. As with most indexes, the actual number isn't as significant as the direction it moves. It helps us understand whether America's biggest corporations are growing. Daily fluctuations are very normal.

The Big Five alone count for over 20% of the total size of "The Market." The other ~495 companies make up the additional 80%. So the prices of those Big Tech companies significantly affect the perception of how the whole market is doing.

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