Today's Scoop:

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Here’s what you need to know today…

1. Layoffs fell last week, but people are staying unemployed longer.

2. Businesses are feeling less inflation.

3. Manhattan rents have been breaking records for months.

S&P 500: 4,510.04
1Mo: +3% | 1Yr: +19% | 5Yr: +61%

The market continued its march higher for the fourth straight day, breaking a new 2023 high, as investors celebrated positive economic developments and lower inflation.

Fewer people got laid off last week than expected. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell to 237,000, in line with pre-pandemic averages. People seem to be having a slightly harder time finding work. Continuing claims, which include those who have been unemployed for longer than one week, rose for the first time in four weeks. Unemployment remains near historic lows.

Businesses aren’t really dealing with inflation anymore. The Labor Department’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose only 0.1% in June after falling -0.4% in May. [🤓] Supply costs for businesses are only 0.1% higher than a year ago. Costs for consumers are still 3% higher than a year ago.

The country’s most expensive rental market has been breaking records. The median price to lease a Manhattan apartment fell slightly to $4,300 per month in June after three straight months breaching new all-time highs, according to appraiser Miller Samuel and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. Brooklyn and Queens prices kept surging, so the market experts don’t expect the price relief to last long.

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• Amazon ordered to stop fighting its worker union

• General Mills beefs up regenerative farming

• PepsiCo gets pushback on higher prices

• Delta Air Lines reports a record-breaking travel season

• Recursion Pharma gets a boost from Nvidia for AI-powered drugs

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Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is another important indicator for economists tracking inflation. Inflation is the rate at which things get more expensive.

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which looks at a set basket of stuff your average consumer spends money on and tracks how much it costs each month, the PPI tracks the prices of wholesale goods - like how much Ford pays for the tires it installs in its cars before selling them to you. The rate of change in those prices is inflation.

Prices rarely decline. Inflation, aka rising prices, is only a problem when it's really fast. Business supply costs increasing by 5-10% per year like last year is not manageable.

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