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Today's Scoop:
Buzzing 🌤️
Hey friends, it’s been a heck of a week and an even bigger month. Thanks for supporting us through it all. More huge updates are on the way. Stay tuned for a big summer from Share Scoops!
Here’s what you need to know today…
Big Picture
The US economy slowed in the first quarter.
The government needs to figure out its debt problem fast.
The housing market turned sour in March.
The Market: ⬆️+2.0%
S&P 500: 4,135.35
1Mo: +4% | 1Yr: -4% | 5Yr: +55%
The market snapped back today as surprisingly upbeat corporate financial reports helped investors move past the concerns about the banking system from earlier in the week.
US economic growth slowed in the first three months of the year. The Commerce Department reported real gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter, slower than the 2.6% growth rate for the fourth quarter.[🤓] Consumer spending, which powers about two-thirds of the economy, stayed pretty strong, despite higher living costs. Businesses invested in less equipment and machinery. Spending on home construction continues to slump.
The housing market turned sour in March. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said pending home sales tumbled last month unexpectedly after a three-month rebound. Last week, the NAR reported the number of existing home sales dropped by 2.4% in March. New home sales, a smaller portion of all homes, jumped, but there’s not a lot of supply in the market. Fewer available homes, high prices, and high mortgage rates have deterred buyers and sellers.
The government needs to figure out its debt issues fast before the Treasury can’t pay its bills. Congress directs the Treasury to spend money (on defense, infrastructure, etc.), and the Treasury pays from its income (taxes) or charges to the credit card (issues Treasury bonds). Congress has directed the Treasury to spend more than it can afford, and it has already hit its credit limit. Only Congress can raise the limit. In some unknown amount of time, maybe 1-4 months, the Treasury won’t be able to pay the bills. The impacts of that are unprecedented and could push the US economy and the world into a downward spiral. So it’s very unlikely Congress chooses not to raise the debt ceiling, but it’s a major risk. The House passed its first proposal to raise the debt ceiling, but there are still a lot of negotiations left.
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Inside Scoop 🤓
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is how we track how much stuff the economy is producing. The actual number (~$26 trillion) doesn't matter as much as the direction and magnitude. We track the growth rate of real GDP (inflation-adjusted) to know whether the economy is expanding or contracting from the previous quarter.
The reporting style can be a bit confusing. The main number you hear will be an annualized growth rate (+1.1%), representing how much the GDP would increase/decrease if the economy hypothetically grew at that rate for an entire year. It's different from how much our production increased/decreased quarter-to-quarter (+0.3%) and not representative of the growth/decline over the past year (+1.6%). Annualizing the past quarter’s change makes the backward-looking number a little more forward-looking.
Action Toolbox 🔨
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Here are our top priorities for today’s challenges:
Rising Rates & More Layoffs: Make sure you have an emergency savings in cash. Use SaveBetter to make sure your savings account pays you at least 4%.
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