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Here's what you need to know today...

1. Inflation was lower than expected in March.

2. Food and energy costs have fallen.

3. Policymakers worry about the banking crises causing a recession.

S&P 500: 4,091.951Mo: +6% | 1Yr: -8% | 5Yr: +54%

The market ended the day lower despite good news about inflation, as minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting raised concerns about the banking system.

Living costs rose less than expected in March, putting inflation back on its downward course. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index [🤓] rose 0.1% in March after jumping 0.4% in February and 0.5% in January. Living costs are 5% higher than a year ago.

Food and energy costs have fallen, but housing prices remain problematic. Grocery prices fell in March for the first time in months, and oil, gas, and electricity all got cheaper. The most significant source of inflation was still rent and home prices, though more real-time measures of rent and housing costs have already started falling. Government measures run on a bit of a delay for real estate.

Policymakers are worried about last month's banking crisis creating more economic problems. Minutes released today from the previous Federal Reserve meeting revealed concerns that even if there are no more bank runs or failures, banks will be more cautious with their lending, slowing business activity. Lending data from the Federal Reserve and surveys from small business owners have confirmed some of those suspicions.

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CPI & Inflation

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the main ways economists track inflation. Inflation is the rate at which things get more expensive. The CPI looks at a set basket of stuff your average consumer spends money on and tracks how much it costs each month. The rate of change is inflation.

Prices rarely go down. It's normal for things to get more expensive. You'll never be able to buy a Coke for a quarter again, but that's ok. Low inflation (~1-2% per year) is standard and almost unnoticeable. High inflation, like we've seen this past year, with prices of essential goods going up nearly 7-10% per year, is a problem. It's unmanageable, especially if our incomes aren't rising in tandem.

Policymakers have been raising interest rates to slow economic activity and cool spending so prices stop rising so quickly.