Today's Scoop:

Wobbly🌤️

Hey friends - hope you had a nice weekend. Make sure to catch up with our Weekly Scoop, and don’t miss our Explained on timing your investments.
Here’s what you need to know today…

Big Picture

  1. Businesses felt costs jump last month.

  2. NYC apartment rents keep breaking records.

  3. Consumers feel better about the economy and are less worried about inflation.

The Market: ⬆️+0.6%

S&P 500: 4,489.72
1Mo: -1% | 1Yr: +5% | 5Yr: +58%

The market drifted a little higher today after a pretty flat past week. A shock election result in Argentina devalued the currency of Latin America's third-biggest economy by 18% but didn’t shake up global markets much.

Businesses felt expenses jump last month. The Labor Department reported a surprise 0.3% spike in the Producer Price Index in July. [🤓] Supplies have been fairly steady or getting cheaper in recent months, leading to lower consumer prices. Costs are still only 0.8% higher than a year ago.

Consumers are feeling better about the economy and inflation. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey reported an uptick in positivity about current conditions but a slight decline in future expectations. People are finding jobs easily, and wages are rising. Americans expect living costs to climb by 3.3% over the next year and by less than 3% over the next 3-5 years. A New York Federal Reserve survey confirmed similar expectations. Lower inflation expectations can be self-fulfilling.

America’s most expensive rental market keeps getting worse. New York City leases set new records again last month. Manhattan’s median rent hit $4,400, up 2.3% from June. Brooklyn rents rose to $3,950, and Queens apartments climbed 1.9% to $3,641, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The number of lease signings declined across all boroughs, hinting that renter demand might be waning.

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 Inside Scoop 🤓

Inflation for businesses - Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is another important indicator for economists tracking inflation. Inflation is the rate at which things get more expensive.

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which looks at a set basket of stuff your average consumer spends money on and tracks how much it costs each month, the PPI tracks the prices of wholesale goods - like how much Ford pays for the tires it installs in its cars before selling them to you. The rate of change in those prices is inflation.

Prices rarely decline. Inflation, aka rising prices, is only a problem when it's really fast (3%+ per year).

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