Today's Scoop:

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Here’s what you need to know today…

1. Fewer people got laid off last week.

2. Americans’ excess savings are dwindling.

3. US manufacturing might be through the worst of the downturn.

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S&P 500: 4,370.36
1Mo: -4% | 1Yr: +2% | 5Yr: +52%

The market drifted lower today as investors got caught up in the old debate about the economy, inflation, and interest rates. It’s good that the economy looks like it will avoid a recession, but that makes people worried about inflation and the potential for higher interest rates needed to battle it.

Companies cut back on layoffs last week. The Labor Department reported initial unemployment claims dropped to 239,000, roughly in line with pre-pandemic averages. Unemployment is about as low as economists think possible, and there are still 1.6 available jobs for every unemployed person.

Americans’ savings accounts are dwindling. An analysis from the San Francisco Federal Reserve found that consumers are about to run out of the excess savings they built up over the pandemic from stimulus checks and lower spending during lockdowns. Some projections say it’s already gone. Inflation has eaten into everyone’s budgets.

The US manufacturing sector may be through the worst of the downturn. With consumers and businesses purchasing less stuff, factories have been in a recession for months. The Institute for Supply Management reported national factory activity declined for the 7th straight month in July, but at a slower pace. Measures from the Federal Reserve signaled a surprise jump in national manufacturing activity in July, but regional indicators were mixed, declining in New York but doing better around Philadelphia.

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• Hawaii Electric faces mounting lawsuits over wildfire accountability

• Occidental Petroleum invests big in carbon capture tech [🤓]

• Amazon squeezes merchants more despite regulatory risks

• Walmart wins by keeping prices low

• Netflix starts rolling out more gaming

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Rising Rates & More Layoffs: Make sure you have an emergency savings in cash. Use Raisin (formerly SaveBetter) to make sure your savings account pays you at least 5%.