Today's Scoop:

Fried☀️

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Here’s what you need to know today…

Big Picture

  1. The economy is strong.

  2. Companies have been cutting back on layoffs.

  3. Inflation keeps trending lower.

The Market: ⬇️-0.6%

S&P 500: 4,537.41
1Mo: +4% | 1Yr: +11% | 5Yr: +60%

The market took a break from the rally today as investors digested a slew of corporate financial reports and economic data. Companies have been mostly doing better than expected, and the economy continues to be surprisingly strong.

Companies keep cutting back on layoffs. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell for the third straight week last week to 221,000. That’s fewer weekly layoffs than in 2019. Unemployment still remains near historic lows.

The US economy accelerated into summer. The Commerce Department reported US real GDP [🤓] grew at a 2.4% annualized pace from April through June, faster than the 2% pace in the first quarter. Even though consumer spending, which powers two-thirds of the economy, slowed down from the boom at the start of the year, businesses started investing in more machinery, especially planes and vehicles.

Inflation keeps trending lower, meaning living costs are still rising, but not at the unmanageable pace of the past couple of years. Policymakers’ preferred inflation gauge showed core living costs rose only 3.8% in the second quarter. That’s down from the 4.9% pace of the first three months of the year and the lowest reading in two years. Wages have recently started growing faster than the cost of living, providing more hope for things to get better for the average American.

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 Inside Scoop 🤓

What is GDP?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is how we track how much stuff the economy is producing. The actual number (~$26 trillion) doesn't matter as much as the direction and magnitude. We track the growth rate of real GDP (inflation-adjusted) to know whether the economy is expanding or contracting from the previous quarter.

The reporting style can be a bit confusing. The main number you hear will be an annualized growth rate (+2.4%), representing how much the GDP would increase/decrease if the economy hypothetically grew at that rate for an entire year. It's different from how much our production increased/decreased quarter-to-quarter (+0.6%) and not representative of the growth/decline over the past year (+2.6%). Annualizing the past quarter’s change makes the backward-looking number a little more forward-looking.

Action Toolbox 🔨

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Rising Rates & More Layoffs: Make sure you have an emergency savings in cash. Use SaveBetter to make sure your savings account pays you at least 5%.

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