Today's Scoop:

Wavering 🌤️

Hey friends, it’s almost Friday.
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Here’s what you need to know today…

Big Picture

  1. Layoffs spiked last week.

  2. Businesses are starting to get a break from inflation.

  3. The trouble isn’t over for regional banks.

The Market: ⬇️-0.2%

S&P 500: 4,130.62
1Mo: +1% | 1Yr: +5% | 5Yr: +52%

The market drifted lower today as investors continued to debate the fate of the economy.

Layoffs spiked last week. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 264,000 last week, the highest level since October 2021. While it’s a big jump in a week, it’s not that much higher than average. Pre-pandemic averages were around 200,000-240,000.

Businesses are starting to get a break from inflation. The Labor Department’s Producer Price Index [🤓] rose 0.2% in April, with wholesale supply costs now only 2.3% higher than a year ago. A jump in gas prices pushed costs higher for businesses, but egg prices fell 36% in a month. Costs for consumers are still rising, though, with one-year inflation at 4.9%.

The trouble isn’t over yet for regional banks. Last week, First Republic Bank went under and reignited panic about the stability of regional banks. It was the second-largest bank failure in US history. Today, PacWest Bank reported withdrawals of 10% of its deposits in 48 hours. PacWest says it has plenty of cash, but no bank can withstand mass withdrawals. Panic about possible bank failures can quickly turn into real bank failures if depositors flee.

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 Inside Scoop 🤓

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is another important indicator for economists tracking inflation. Inflation is the rate at which things get more expensive.

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which looks at a set basket of stuff your average consumer spends money on and tracks how much it costs each month, the PPI tracks the prices of wholesale goods - like how much Ford pays for the tires it installs in its cars before selling them to you. The rate of change in those prices is inflation.

Prices rarely decline. Inflation, aka rising prices, is only a problem when it's really fast. Business supply costs increasing by 5-10% per year is not manageable, but 1-3% should be.

Action Toolbox 🔨

Use our vetted resources to level up your financial wellness. View & compare more services.

Here are our top priorities for today’s challenges:

  1. Rising Rates & More Layoffs: Make sure you have an emergency savings in cash. Use SaveBetter to make sure your savings account pays you at least 4%.

  2. Higher Living Costs & Tighter Budgets: Make sure to avoid debt by tracking your spending, building savings, and spending carefully. We use Guac to save while spending and get cash back on 200+ brands.

  3. Volatile Markets: Automate your investment contributions to take the emotions out of it. We use M1 to automate banking and investing in one place.

  4. Hidden Opportunities: Down markets are a good time to hunt for bargains if you have the savings. We’ve found a lot of success from Motley Fool’s stock picks.

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