Thursday's Scoop: Inflated☀️

Hey friend - it’s the Thursday before a long weekend. Start strategizing on an early exit tomorrow and enjoy the holiday. There will be no scoops on Monday, as markets are closed for Presidents’ Day. We’ll be back with your scoops on Tuesday.

Sharing this opportunity one more time this week in case anyone missed it:

Here’s what you need to know today…

1. Layoffs are still pretty low overall, but it’s getting harder to find a job.

2. Americans cut back their spending last month.

3. US manufacturing is still in a recession.

S&P 500: 5,029.73
1Mo: +6% | 1Yr: +23% | 5Yr: +80%

The market floated to a new all-time high today as investors celebrated bad economic data, hoping that means the Federal Reserve will ease its restrictive economic policies soon.

Americans significantly cut back their spending in January, a warning sign for the economy. The Commerce Department reported retail sales sank by -0.8% in January, the most in ten months and far worse than economists expected. Holiday spending estimates for November and December were revised lower as well. Consumers power two-thirds of the economy, so economic growth depends on Americans spending more each month. 

Layoffs are still pretty low despite the headlines from tech, media, and finance. The Labor Department reported initial unemployment claims fell last week to a relatively low level of 212,000. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks increased to 1.895 million, indicating that finding a job may be more challenging.

The manufacturing industry is still struggling. The Federal Reserve reported an unexpectedly steep drop in production across US factories in January, as facilities suffered damage from harsh winter weather. Production of electronics and appliances picked up, but orders fell for motor vehicles, chemicals, plastics, and non-durable goods. The manufacturing sector accounts for 10% of the economy and has been in contraction for the past year.

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