Thursday's Scoop: Cruising☀️

Hey friend - March Madness is here. Has your bracket already been busted?

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments…

1. Layoffs are still pretty low.

2. Home sales surged last month.

3. Business activity has been solid in March.

Unemployment Rate: 3.9%
^{Still near the lowest rate in 50+ years}

Companies seem hesitant to cut workers amid so much uncertainty. The Labor Department reported that initial unemployment claims fell again last week to 210,000, holding in this low range for the past several weeks despite layoff headlines from notable companies. Continuing claims from those who have been out of work for consecutive weeks have been creeping higher, indicating that it might be more challenging for people to find jobs.

Business activity has stayed relatively strong so far in March. S&P Global’s monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index indicated a continued expansion in US manufacturing and services business in March. The services industry makes up most of our economy and showed signs of slowing last month. However, manufacturing seems to be making a comeback after a tough year. New factory orders, employment, and supply chain efficiency have all improved.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 7.0%
^{That’s up from 6.5% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Home Price: $384,500
^{That’s up from $364K a year ago. (NAR)}

Home sales surged last month as more homes came onto the market. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes in the US jumped 9.5% in February, the highest level in a year. The supply of homes on the market surged by 6% thanks to a flurry of new construction. However, home resales, which make up most of the market, are still down 3.3% from last year. Fewer people selling their homes has perpetuated a shortage in the market that’s keeping prices high. The overall supply is only half of what it was before the pandemic. With limited supply, sellers are getting multiple offers, pushing prices higher. More than a fifth of sales last month were above market price. This has edged first-time home buyers out of the market, representing far fewer transactions than usual. The median existing home sold for $384,500 in February, up 5.7% from a year earlier.

The Market: ⬆️ +0.3%
S&P 500: 5,241.53
1Mo: +3% | 1Yr: +33% | 5Yr: +87%

The market notched another new record high on Thursday, carrying yesterday's momentum. Investors were happy to hear policymakers express confidence in the economy, slowing inflation, and coming interest rate cuts.