Thursday's Scoop: Mixed☀️

Hey friends - almost Friday.

Insiders, look out for the Weekly Scoop tomorrow.

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments:

1. Layoff rates are still low, but finding a job is getting harder.

2. US businesses are picking up steam while price hikes are slowing down.

3. A drop in mortgage rates got buyers off the sideline last month.

Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
^{Relatively low, but up from record lows.}

Layoff rates are still low, but finding a job is getting harder. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 last week, fewer layoffs than economists expected. However, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks rose to nearly 1.9 million—the highest since November 2021—indicating it's getting tougher for those who've lost jobs to find new ones. While hurricanes and worker strikes have muddied the labor market data, the Federal Reserve's recent Beige Book noted that employment increased slightly in early October. So, hiring seems relatively stable, but if you're looking, it might take a bit longer to land a new position.

US businesses are picking up steam while price hikes are slowing down. According to S&P Global's latest report, their composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in both manufacturing and services—rose to 54.3 in October from 54.0 in September, signaling solid growth. Any number above 50 indicates expansion. Even better, companies raised their prices at the slowest pace since May 2020, suggesting inflation is cooling back to a normal level. This means the economy started the fourth quarter on a strong footing, and you might soon feel a bit more relief at the checkout counter if wages keep catching up with the cost of living.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 6.5%
^{That’s down from 7.9% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Home Price: $404,500
^{That’s up from $393K a year ago. (Existing homes - NAR)}

A drop in mortgage rates got buyers off the sideline last month. New home sales in the US reached their highest level in nearly 18 months. According to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, the number of new single-family home sales jumped 4.1% in September to an annual rate of 738,000 units, more than economists expected. This surge was likely driven by cheaper mortgage rates in September. Rates fell to their lowest point in over a year and a half as the Federal Reserve began easing some of its restrictive policies aimed at controlling inflation. However, rates have climbed back up recently, which might cool future sales. If you're considering buying a new home, this trend likely shows buyer competition will increase as mortgage rates come back down.

The Market:⬆️ +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,809.86
1Mo: +1% | 1Yr: +37% | 5Yr: +92%

The market inched higher on Thursday as economic data and reports from America's biggest companies hit the sweet spot for decent economic growth without sparking fears of reigniting inflation or policymakers keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.