🧭 The Weekly Scoop

Hey Insider - happy Friday!

Have you seen the updates this week in your app? There are only two more Weekly Scoops left until we move to the app. I think you’re going to love our new Weekend Scoop feature we’re working on right now.

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Here’s what you need to know this week:

Last week's story was the hype around potential deregulation and tax cuts. This week, the focus shifted to the practical details of the proposed policies, including concerns about potential tariffs reigniting inflation and big questions about how the country pays for tax cuts amidst ballooning national debt.

Since there are no clear answers on policy yet, let’s turn to one of the most common questions I get when cryptocurrency prices are surging: How high do you think the price can go? Should I buy Bitcoin?

I have always given the answer: never buy more than you can lose. While Bitcoin has become more institutionalized over the past couple of years, with more safety, security, and professionalism, the digital assets space is still far from secure. The reason there’s a lot of hype right now is because there’s hope that might change. With a more crypto-friendly president, Congress, and regulatory agency leaders, there might be more room to create more institutional structure around blockchain transactions.

Think of it like legalizing marijuana. Right now, crypto is sort of in the shadows, and while everyone’s using it, even the lawmakers, it’s still kind of against the rules. The federal regulations aren’t clear, and each state’s laws are different. So the people facilitating it get in trouble because they don’t know exactly what’s cool and what’s not.

While crypto assets are clearly volatile, they’re not that much more volatile than individual stocks. The risk of losing your money is really thanks to the shady stuff, where you’re more likely to fall victim to a hack, lose access to your account, get scammed, or see the company who held your money randomly go out of business for fraud, legal issues, or poor risk management. Having more explicit regulations could help shift the process from the equivalent of buying caprese salad from the warehouse guys in the alley to shopping at the Apple Store of Weed on Park Avenue.

So that’s the hype and the risk; how about a price target? Nah. Anyone telling you they know where the price is going is full of it. Most “analysis” is based on charting the price movements. It’s like astrology for stocks. The bottom line is that right now, it’s an asset with a relatively constrained supply, so the more people that want to put money into it, the higher the price goes. So, it’s only as valuable as the attention it gets.

Similar arguments could be made about the stock market. Ancient financiers will say stocks have more underlying value, but that’s only sometimes true. Plenty of companies never pay profits out to their shareholders, so the value of the stock goes up because people believe in the company and want to put money into something with limited supply. Some companies might be worth it, but there are plenty of companies worth insane valuations that don’t make much money at all.

Stocks are just tokens of companies. The difference is that they’ve been around longer, so there’s a relative valuation process. We can say we’ll pay 20x more for the stock than our share of the profits because other companies are valued at a similar markup or because the company has historically been marked up around that much. Crypto hasn’t been around long enough to build that sort of standard, so it’s hard to value.

One more final thought is that the technology could become obsolete at some point, perhaps with advancements in quantum computing or something else that replaces it. I’d say there’s also the risk that more frequent power failures or internet outages could diminish its appeal. Crypto, along with AI, might also eventually fall victim to a debate about energy use prioritization if we can’t find a path toward sustainable, clean energy sources.

So, my final answer? You won’t get one from me in writing. Be cautious.

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