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🌎 The Big Picture

Productivity is up, mortgage rates are down, and business costs are easing, offering some relief for workers, homeowners, and small businesses. But families are still feeling the pressure of rising prices and job uncertainty, especially older Americans and job seekers facing a tougher market than headlines suggest.

It's been a lot harder to find a job than the stats have been saying. Employers have hired about half as many people as we thought this past year.

And hiring in the past few months has been almost half that rate.

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that employers added 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 - March 2025 than initially reported. That's massive.

How did we get the numbers so wrong?
Think of counting jobs like estimating attendance at a huge outdoor festival while it's happening. You can see the main crowd clearly, but new people keep arriving, others leave, and some areas are hard to see.

The BLS surveys about 121,000 businesses, representing about 631,000 individual worksites every month. But new companies open and close constantly, so they use a "birth-death model" to estimate jobs at businesses not yet in their survey.
Once a year, they get the full picture using unemployment insurance records covering 95% of all jobs, like counting ticket sales after the festival ends.

Which industries got hit hardest in the revisions?
▪️Leisure & Hospitality: -176,000 jobs
▪️Professional & Business Services: -158,000 jobs
▪️Retail Trade: -126,000 jobs
▪️Wholesale Trade: -110,000 jobs
▪️Manufacturing: -95,000 jobs

Why were the estimates so off?
The BLS found two main sources of error from responses, but they haven't yet analyzed whether fewer new businesses opened than expected or more businesses closed than the model originally predicted.

Why does this matter?
It's mostly old news - this data covers 5-17 months ago. But it confirms the job market has been worse than we realized.

What's happening right now?
The recent data is concerning:
▪️June-Aug avg: Just 29,000 new jobs/mo (less than half last year's pace) (Normal is about 150k/mo)
▪️Young workers hit hardest: 20-24yo unemployment is double the broader rate
▪️Manufacturing down 78,000 jobs this year

Clearing up misconceptions:
No, the BLS isn't "faking" data. This annual statistical revision process has existed for 90 years. Large revisions happen regularly, though this was a much larger revision than the 10yr average.

So why has hiring slowed so much?
▪️Some AI impact: NY Fed data shows 12% of companies using AI hired fewer workers because of it. This matches Dallas and Atlanta Fed findings.
▪️Natural correction: After pandemic over-hiring, plus manufacturing has been contracting for most of the last few years.
▪️Policy uncertainty: The Fed's latest Beige Book notes businesses in most regions are "hesitant to hire because of weaker demand and uncertainty over the near-term outlook."

The bottom line: It's a combination of technology changing how we work, natural economic cycles, and businesses hitting pause due to policy uncertainty.

With layoffs climbing to almost a four-year high last week, the job market is raising some major red flags.

Get the full breakdown of all the trends affecting your home, wallet, and career in the new Weekend Scoop on the Scoops app!

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