Hey friends - welcome back! This is already shaping up to be another crazy year. One of my resolutions is to challenge default negative perspectives, so I’m feeling pretty good about the year ahead.

I already won the lottery this year. $10 on Mega Millions yesterday. It will go towards my tab at Cafe Panna. Wishing you all an abundance of luck in 2026.

🌎 The Big Picture

The first week of 2026 has been wild, but besides geopolitics, the US economy is looking like things might be heading in the right direction. Lots of data on the job market this week.

▶️ Layoffs have slowed down. 

The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly to 208,000 last week, but that’s still a low level. Average weekly unemployment filings over the past four weeks have been the lowest in over 18 months.

The upstream layoff announcements have slowed, too, after a big year of job cut headlines. A separate report from placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that businesses announced 50% fewer layoffs in December than in November, 8% fewer than last December. There were over 1.2 million total layoff announcements in 2025, the most in five years. Still, roughly a quarter of those firings were related to the Department of Government Efficiency federal staffing cuts. There were still more layoffs than usual last year across many industries, including tech, warehousing, retail, and business services. While it was a rough year of slow cutbacks for many businesses, workers are building a little more job security in recent weeks.

▶️ Millions of workers started the year with a raise.

Nineteen US states began 2026 with higher minimum wages, providing an immediate pay bump for 8.3 million workers. According to the Economic Policy Institute, over $5 billion in annualized earnings will hit these workers’ wallets in 2026. Hawaii saw the largest relative increase, with its minimum wage jumping from $14 to $16, an extra $4,000 per year for full-time workers. Washington State set a new high at $17.13 per hour, the first state minimum wage above $17.

This marks the first time most Americans live in states with minimums of $15 or more, shifting the balance away from the stagnant federal baseline of $7.25 that has been unchanged since 2009. For workers, these higher pay floors could push broader salaries higher and help close the gap as the cost of living continues to climb. However, these higher wage costs could strain small businesses that operate on tighter margins, potentially leading to staff and spending cutbacks or higher prices for customers.

▶️ Wall Street expects another good year for the stock market in 2026.

Despite nearly a 20% selloff in April when the White House announced its aggressive tariff threats, the S&P 500 Index recovered and ended the year up 16%. This was the third straight year that the broad stock market index delivered double-digit returns for investors.

The main themes driving the market last year were the continued acceleration of artificial intelligence technology and the expanded economic stimulus from the US government. Big Tech companies, spending billions on data centers, chips, and talent, started showing real financial returns on their massive investments. However, there was plenty of debate throughout the year about whether the money pouring into AI would really be profitable or if the whole industry was just a growing bubble.

While innovation fueled corporate growth, the government focused on loosening any policies restricting business. The Federal government slashed regulations and taxes, and the Federal Reserve continued bringing down borrowing costs to stimulate more borrowing and spending.

According to Bloomberg, Wall Street analysts expect the broad S&P 500 stock market index to end of 2026 about 9% higher, following a 16% gain in 2025. Out of 21 analysts surveyed, not one expects the stock market to have a negative year. The driving force behind this optimism is the tech industry. According to projections from Russell Investments, earnings could climb 27% for tech firms alone.

Big profits ahead. According to Factset, America’s biggest businesses are expected to generate double-digit profit growth next year, but stocks are already priced well above their averages, relative to profits. So, only time will tell. Over the past forty years, the S&P 500 has fallen every year by over 14% on average, but still ended up with a positive return roughly 75% of the time, according to JP Morgan. Volatility is normal, and 2026 will surely be no different.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.