Hey friends - hope you’re like the stock market and getting the day off today. If not, just leave anyways they won’t notice.

Shoutout UConn men and women in the final four this weekend! Screamed and woke my dog and baby for that final shot of the men’s game on Sunday. Wild!

Last week, most of you said your March Madness brackets were busted:

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🪦 Busted
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ❤️‍🩹 Still alive
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙄 Don't care

🌎 The Big Picture

There’s still a war going on that’s really going to be driving the narrative for a while, but here’s what stood out to me this week:

The stock market swung wildly again on Thursday, ending slightly higher. Investors spent the day oscillating between fear and cautious relief as the US-Iran conflict showed no clear sign of ending soon. In a Wednesday night address to the nation, President Trump said the US would strike Iran hard over the next two to three weeks, causing US crude oil prices to surge more than 11% in a single day, reaching levels not seen since mid-2022.

When people pay more at the gas pump, it raises the cost of transporting goods, which businesses often pass along to shoppers through higher prices. That is why oil spikes matter far beyond the gas station.

A brief moment of hope came when Iranian state media reported the country was working with Oman on a plan to monitor shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for both oil and helium, a material with no substitute in computer chip manufacturing.

Layoff announcements ticked up in March. But workers are still largely holding onto their jobs. Placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that employers announced 60,620 job cuts last month, up 25% from February. However, looking at the first three months of the year, first-quarter layoff announcements are the lowest in four years, down from last quarter and half as many as the start of 2025.

AI was the leading reason companies cited for layoffs in March, making up roughly one in four announced layoffs. Companies are moving money toward AI investments, and the technology sector is feeling it most, with the highest year-to-date total layoff announcements since 2023.

While announcements have picked up, they’re not translating to real unemployment. The Labor Department reported that the number of workers filing for unemployment for the first time fell last week to 202,000, well below expectations, suggesting companies are not actively pushing workers out the door. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in March, which is right around where it’s been for the past year and is historically pretty low.

It remains a low-hire, low-fire job market. Announced cuts are a forward-looking signal of what companies plan to do, while unemployment filings reflect what is happening right now, and right now, actual job losses remain low. It’s a really hard time to find a new job, but job security is still relatively good.

Prices at the pump keep climbing. Gasoline crossed $4 a gallon in March for the first time since 2022, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. In late February, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Middle East through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. When that chokepoint closes, energy markets around the world feel it almost immediately.

The change has been steep. In the weeks since, crude oil prices have climbed by over 50% in March to above $100 a barrel, and average gasoline prices have risen by more than $1 per gallon nationwide, up more than 35% in one month. Diesel has climbed even higher, topping $5.45 a gallon, which raises costs for trucking and shipping and feeds into the price of nearly everything else.

The White House has taken steps to try to slow the rise, including temporarily allowing foreign ships to carry fuel between US ports and suspending certain summer fuel regulations. So far, fuel prices remain high with little relief in sight. These higher costs could slow spending or encourage businesses to cut costs, potentially making it even harder to find a job and raising the risk of layoffs.

Wall Street bonuses hit a record high in 2025 for the second year in a row. The average annual bonus payment, on top of bankers’ salaries, rose 6%, to $246,900 last year. New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli estimated the total bonus pool at $49.2 billion, up 9% from the year before, driven by rising profits across the financial industry from increased trading, generating more commissions, and more corporate mergers and transactions, driving higher advisory fees. Wall Street profits climbed more than 30% in 2025, fueling the payouts.

The record bonuses went to fewer people than in past years, as Wall Street employment in New York City dropped to its lowest level in three years. More financial industry jobs have been growing in other parts of the country. Wall Street still supports roughly 1 in 13 jobs in the city, directly or indirectly, and contributes nearly 20% of New York State’s tax revenue. DiNapoli noted that while last year’s performance was strong, there are more risks facing the industry this year. Bankers won’t be able to count on record bonuses every year. Still, the pay growth for the industry at the highest end of the compensation spectrum might bode well for continued raises across the economy.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.