Hey friends - it’s a beautiful Friday morning. I’m doing class outside today. Birds are chirping. The sky is blue. I’m drinking coffee again. The ides of summer.

🌎 The Big Picture

Slow week this week, but next week is packed with big data releases to give us a full picture of everything going on with the economy.

Stock markets had a rough Thursday.

The geopolitical drama and some ugly tech earnings rattled investors pretty hard. 

The broad S&P 500 stock market index dropped 1.21%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 2.15%, dragged down by some disappointing reports from big tech names. Alphabet (Google's parent) tanked 7% after saying it plans to drop ~$200 billion on AI infrastructure, which spooked investors who are already getting skiddish about how much money big tech is burning through and whether it makes sense. Tesla fell 14% on weak profit margins and a lot of spending too.

The Middle East war took a turn for the worse this week, now 12 straight rounds of airstrikes in, and it's been pushing oil prices steadily higher since early July.

That likely means higher prices for pretty much everything. 

Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and military threats sent Brent crude surging 7% past $100 for the first time since the ceasefire. It bottomed out during the ceasefire near $70, meaning it has climbed more than 40% in just a few weeks. That will hit prices at the pump any day now. Pricier oil makes everyday stuff more expensive, and investors are getting nervous that policymakers might hike interest rates to fight inflation. Higher rates make mortgages, business loans, and car leases more expensive, among other things. The idea is that more expensive borrowing slows spending, and less spending gives businesses less pressure to raise prices.

Job security's looking solid right now, with fewer people filing for unemployment than at almost any point in decades. 

Initial unemployment claims dropped to 187,000 last week, the lowest since 1969. Companies are clearly holding onto their people rather than cutting.

Even smoothing out the weekly noise, layoffs have been low. The four-week average, which irons out the weekly swings, fell to one of its lowest readings in five years.

Finding a new job, though? Still really tough. 

A lot of people dropped out of the workforce last month, and fewer job seekers means fewer new claims. Continuing claims, which track people collecting benefits week after week, held steady near 1.8 million. Bottom line: if you've got a job, it looks secure. If you're hunting for one, brace yourself for a long road.

Americans are spending with real confidence, and cheaper gas gave household budgets a nice boost in June. 

Retail sales rose 0.2% for the month, which sounds underwhelming, but gas prices were quietly dragging that number down. When people pay less at the pump, those savings just don't show up in retail data. Strip out gas stations, and spending actually jumped a much healthier 0.7%.

A lot of that extra cash went toward non-essentials, exactly the kind of spending that shows people feel good about their finances. Bank of America's card data backed that up, with overall spending up 6.3% year-over-year, the fastest one-year jump in more than four years. They did flag that one-off events like the World Cup gave June a temporary lift. But still, the bigger picture is that people are holding up pretty well financially, and that's good news for business owners and anyone counting on Americans to keep opening their wallets.

Gas prices are consistently volatile, so there’s still room for this conflict to cool off and lower the impact on the broader economy.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.