Hey friends - happy birthday to America! Hope you’re out crushing hot dogs and making memories. Try to make it to Monday with all your fingers.

🌎 The Big Picture

Here’s what to catch up on this week:

Hiring's slowing and tech layoffs are surging, but most industries are holding onto their people.

Employers added 57,000 workers in June, above last year's monthly average of 36,000, but way below May's revised 129,000 and April's revised 148,000. Those two months got revised down by a combined 74,000, so the picture's not nearly as good as it looked a few weeks ago.

Unemployment's still low, but nobody's quitting, and that just means things are frozen.

The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, hanging in the 4.1%–4.3% range it's been stuck in for almost a year, which is a decent sign of stability. But the Labor Department's May JOLTS report showed the quitting rate dropped to just 1.9%, a level we haven't seen since the mid-2010s when unemployment was sitting much higher, around 5.5%. Bottom line: people don't feel safe enough to walk away from their jobs right now. If you're hiring, your search just got harder. If you're job hunting, it's gonna take longer than you'd like.

Layoffs are low overall, but tech's cutting jobs fast, and AI's reshuffling everything.

Initial unemployment filings came in at 215,000 last week, well below where they were a year ago, and the monthly average has stayed low. The May JOLTS report showed actual layoffs holding flat at a 1.1% rate, near historic lows.

But placement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported 443,604 layoff announcements through June, the second-highest January-to-June total since 2020. Tech makes up roughly a third of those, up 83% from the same stretch last year. AI was cited in one of every three June job cut announcements, making it the leading reason for the fourth month running.

Here's the flip side, though: AI is also driving more hiring.

Revelio Labs found that companies making the biggest AI investments grew headcount by about 10% after adoption. This looks less like a jobs massacre and more like a restructuring.

The cost of living is climbing at its fastest pace in over two years.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE Price Index, policymakers' go-to inflation gauge, climbed 4.1% over the past year through May. That's the fastest pace since April 2023 and more than double the target. Strip out food and energy, and core prices are still up 3.4% from a year ago, the fastest since October 2023.

Spending's up, and incomes are holding, but Americans are saving at a near four-year low.

Paychecks are growing. Disposable income jumped 0.7% in May, and even after inflation, real purchasing power grew 0.3%. Americans spent 0.7% more in May too, with real spending up 0.3%, so it's not just sticker shock padding the numbers.

The catch? People are saving a whole lot less to keep up. The personal saving rate sat at just 3.0%, nearly a four-year low and less than half the pre-pandemic average of over 7%. Incomes are keeping pace for now, but if you're not actively protecting your savings, it's worth a hard look. And if you run a business, keep a close eye on how your customers' habits start shifting if costs keep climbing.

Buying a home still beats renting over the long run, but the math is totally different depending on where you live.

Zillow's research shows that nationally, homeowners break even with renters in about 6 years with a typical 5%–20% down payment at current median home prices and mortgage costs. Stay put for 30 years, and homeowners build roughly $735,000 in net wealth, while renters fall about $1.15 million behind. Bank of America found that 53% of Americans now prefer buying over renting, up from 48% last year, and 90% see a home as a valuable investment.

But location changes everything. In Columbus, Memphis, and Buffalo, you can break even with renting in just 3.5 to 4.2 years. In San Francisco and San Jose, buying doesn't pay off even over three decades.

For millions of households, homeownership just isn't an option right now.

The National Association of Home Builders found that 52% of U.S. households can't afford a $300,000 home, putting ownership out of reach for millions. For those who can make it work, a bigger down payment builds more long-term wealth, but a smaller one keeps more cash on hand and can get you to break even faster.

Stepping back, there's a clear thread running through this week's news: household finances are getting squeezed from every direction. A job market that's slowing and frozen in place. Inflation running well above normal. People putting away the smallest portion of their paychecks in years. And homeownership costs that are simply out of reach for many. None of these things is a crisis on its own, but together, they're worth paying real attention to as you figure out where you stand heading into the second half of the year.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.