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🌎 The Big Picture

The market climbed to another record high on Thursday as investors brushed off the White House's extreme tariff threats, assuming that they will either get walked back or not have a substantial impact on inflation.

The President announced a 50% import tax on copper going into effect on August 1st. Since the country imports about half of its copper, this could affect costs for a wide range of industries and products.

He also threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, though investors don't seem worried about a significant impact. The US exports more goods and services to Brazil than it imports, and the President attributed the tariff to political reasons. So investors expect this one to be blocked or slowed by the courts, given that it doesn't follow any of the same justification for emergency powers as the other tariffs.

Is the One Big Beautiful Bill good for the economy?

Here are the highlights:

1) Tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act set to expire after this year have been made permanent.

That means:

✅ Permanent tax bracket changes

>> Lower taxes for the highest earners

>> Higher or lower taxes for everyone else, depending on income

✅ Permanent lower corporate taxes (21%)

✅ Permanent 20% Qualified Business Income (QBI) deduction

>> Lower tax bill for small businesses, contractors, freelancers, etc.

✅ Permanent R&D business deduction

>> Lower taxes for businesses building in the US

✅ Permanent & higher child tax credit ($2,200)

>> Lower taxes/refund for families with children

✅ Permanent estate tax exemption per person to $15 million

>> More money passed on to heirs tax-free

✅ Higher State & Local Tax (SALT) Deduction ($40K+ until 2030)

>> Lower federal taxes for people in high-tax states

✅ Higher Standard Deduction ($15,750 – single; $31,500 – joint)

>> Lower tax bill for people who don't itemize their deductions (most)

✅ Higher deductions for tips and overtime pay ($25K & $12.5K)

>> Lower tax bill for hourly and service workers

✅ Senior "bonus" tax deduction ($6,000)

>> Lower tax bill for retirees

2) To pay for the lost tax income (in addition to tariff income), the government cut spending in other areas:

🔻 Reduced Medicaid funding, affecting millions

🔻 Reduced food stamps funding, affecting millions

🔻 Stricter borrowing limits on federal student loans, particularly for graduates and parents

🔻 Elimination of tax incentives for environmentally-friendly choices like electric vehicles, solar, etc.

This isn't an exhaustive list, but it hits the highlights.

What does it mean for the economy? You'll hear mixed projections.

Tax cuts are typically a boost to the economy, but much of this is just avoiding a reversion to higher taxes than lowering them further. So, the uplift might not be as big.

Reducing healthcare, food assistance, student loan access, and other services for millions of Americans isn't great for an economy that runs on consumer spending and faces a growing labor shortage.

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