Hey friends - these summer weekends have been absolutely dialed in here in the northeast this year. We’re in for another gorgeous one ahead. I hope the sun is shining wherever you are. If not, let the sun shine in your head.

Lately, I’ve been getting interested in a combination of neuroscience, quantum physics, and our shifting understanding (or lack thereof) of reality. Our reality is what we make it.

🌎 The Big Picture

Not going to spend time on gas prices and the war, because it’s just the same loop.

Peace talks, oil prices down > peace breaks, oil prices up. No clear end in sight.

The bottom line is that even if there is some sort of pact made, the risks around transporting through the Strait of Hormuz (previously a fifth of global oil and very important for many other supplies) are permanently higher. Now, it’s just a question of how much higher. Traffic shutting down unpredictably? Tolls? One out of ten ships might get attacked? Or just the risk that whatever pact there is breaks and it happens all over again.

Prices are based on risk. Business decisions are based on risk. So, higher risk means higher prices and businesses likely needing to restructure their supply chains. There are a million things that influence prices at the pump, so no one can actually tell you where that goes, but the conflict is just one more thing likely to make everything a little more expensive forever.

Borrowers hoping for cheaper loans got no relief this week, and where rates go from here is anybody's guess. 

The big news this week is the Fed. They didn’t actually change anything, but a rare split in Federal Reserve unity, plus less guidance from the Fed's new chair, left everyone wondering what's next. The committee voted 9-3 to hold the key interest rate steady. Fed policymakers don't usually fracture like that when they're setting the baseline rate for the economy, so three dissenting votes is a big deal. The Fed raises rates to make borrowing more expensive, which slows spending and investment - the Fed’s go-to move for fighting inflation. After cutting borrowing costs for over a year, they've now looking at raising rates instead.

Prices have been climbing above the Fed's target inflation rate for more than five years now, and things got worse thanks to tariffs and higher energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Chair Kevin Warsh said rates could still go up if inflation doesn’t calm down, but he didn't give any kind of timeline. Investors had been pricing in nearly 100% odds that the Fed would hike at its next September meeting, if not this one. After this week? That dropped to around 57%, a pretty clear sign that nobody really knows what's coming.

Here's the bottom line from this meeting: the assumption that borrowing costs keep trending lower is done. 

If you've been sitting around waiting for cheaper mortgage rates, car lease deals, credit card rates, or a business line of credit, you may need to re-evaluate.

Americans are getting more financially illiterate. (😠)

The latest TIAA Institute and GFLEC report found that U.S. adults answered only 47% of personal finance questions correctly, the worst score in the survey's entire ten-year run.

And the fallout from that is very real. 

People with weaker financial knowledge were four times more likely to struggle with monthly bills and three times more likely to have no way to cover a surprise $2,000 expense. That's the gap between staying afloat and one car repair spiraling into debt.

Younger people are getting hit the hardest. More than a third of Gen Z scored in the weakest financial knowledge category of any group, and women trailed men by six percentage points overall.

Retirement planning is where the knowledge gaps really show up. Adults averaged just over two correct answers out of six retirement questions. Those who scored higher, four or more, were way more likely to save consistently and feel good about retirement.

Getting a grip on how money works is one of the most practical things anyone can do for their future.

You’re already reading scoops, so I’d bet you’re all in the top percentile. Keep it up.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.