Hey friends - spooky szn is here. Cracked my first pumpkin ale of the season this week. I love fall.

🌎 The Big Picture

Here's what you need to know this week:

• Things just kept getting pricier last month, and you felt it most at the gas pump.

• Small business owners still want to hire.

• Businesses are getting squeezed as costs climb at their fastest pace in years.

• Fewer people bought homes in September as mortgage costs soared.

• Millions of student loan borrowers are about to get kicked out of SAVE.

▶️ Things just kept getting pricier last month, and you felt it most at the gas pump.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks what Americans pay for everyday stuff like gas, rent, and groceries, jumped 0.6% in September, faster than August's 0.4% bump. Prices are now up 3.7% from a year ago, well above the 2% annual pace that policymakers consider healthy.

Fuel is the main culprit.

Gas prices shot up 9.1% in September alone, accounting for more than half of the month's total increase, and pump prices are now a painful 34.2% higher than a year ago. Food wasn't really a driver this time; instead, used cars, airfares, and medical care all got pricier too. Rent and housing costs climbed 0.4% last month and are up 3.2% over the past year, a steady squeeze on household budgets that just won't quit.

Higher fuel costs are rippling through the whole economy.

Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy, still rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the past year. Used cars and trucks ticked up 0.7% last month (even though they're still down 1.5% year-over-year), and new vehicles, clothes, airfares, and medical care all got more expensive too.

Social Security recipients are getting a 3.6% raise next year, but paychecks for everyone else still aren't keeping up.

Social Security recipients are getting a 3.6% raise next year, about $75 more a month, to help offset rising costs. For everyone else, though, paychecks still aren't keeping up, so budgeting tighter matters.

▶️ Small business owners are getting nervous about where the economy's headed, even though many still want to hire.

NFIB reported its optimism index slipped to 97.9 in September, just under its 52-year average of 98.0, marking a second straight monthly drop. Uncertainty shot up too, with the Uncertainty Index jumping to 90, well above its long-run average of 68, making it a lot harder for owners to commit to expanding. That hesitation showed up in pullbacks on investment and capital spending.

They’re still planning to hire, but rising costs are crushing profits.

Hiring plans held up pretty well, with a net 17% of owners still planning to bring people on, just shy of the best hiring outlook since late 2022. But actually doing it got harder: only 51% of owners even tried to hire in September. More owners also said finding qualified workers is their biggest headache, hitting a historically high 26%, up from 24% the month before. Sales expectations improved, but rising fuel and tariff costs crushed profits, with a net 20% of owners reporting weaker earnings. Small businesses still want to grow, they're just doing it way more carefully now.

Businesses are getting squeezed by costs that are climbing at their fastest pace in years.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index, which tracks what businesses pay for goods and services before they reach customers, surged 1.3% in September after a 0.5% rise in August, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022. Businesses are now paying 6.3% more than a year ago, the fastest annual cost increase since December 2022.

▶️ Fewer people bought homes in September as mortgage costs soared.

The National Association of Realtors reported that Americans closed on 2% fewer homes than a year ago. Digital realtor Zillow found that buyers signed 8.5% fewer contracts than last year too, a sign the slowdown's still picking up steam.

Borrowing costs are the problem.

Mortgage rates climbed all month, with the average 30-year rate finishing at 7.28%, the highest since late 2023, per Zillow. That pushed the typical monthly mortgage payment up 6.7% from a year ago, even though home values only rose about 1%.

Sellers are starting to blink.

Realtor.com found that more than 1 in 5 listings had a price cut, more than last year's pace. Buyers have more choices and more negotiating power, but the monthly cost of borrowing is still the biggest obstacle.

▶️ Millions of student loan borrowers are about to get kicked out of SAVE.

About 7 million people enrolled in the SAVE plan need to pick a new plan now, or risk seeing their monthly payments quadruple. The Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan launched in 2023 under the Biden Administration to lower monthly bills using a more generous income formula. States sued to block it, courts agreed, and a final ruling ended it in early 2026.

Now borrowers are applying to other repayment plans or getting rolled into much higher payments.

Those who re-enroll in another income-driven plan will typically pay around 3% of take-home pay, similar to pre-pandemic levels, per an analysis from the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Those who miss the deadline could see payments quadruple to roughly 12% of take-home pay. Two older plans, PAYE and ICR, are also being phased out by 2028. The broader overhaul affects roughly 13 million borrowers across all income-driven repayment plans, per the Education Department's Office of Federal Student Aid. The newer Repayment Assistance Plan, launched in July 2026, sets payments between 1% and 10% of income.

Don't wait. The Education Department already had a backlog of 530,000 pending applications as of April.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.