Hey friends - happy Friday before a long weekend. It feels like you earned it. I can tell. Unplug. Maybe even stop checking the news. Maybe take Tuesday off too.

🌎 The Big Picture

It was a jam-packed week of data on the economy, and it wasn’t scary. It wasn’t awesome. It was fine. Hiring, costs, housing, and more seem to be trending (very slowly) in a positive direction.

▶️ Businesses kicked off 2026 with more hiring than expected.

The Labor Department reported that employers added 130,000 net new jobs in January, the most in over a year. Half of the January hiring came from the healthcare and social assistance industries, where demand for medical workers and family services continues to outstrip available staff. Fewer people went without work last month, too, as the unemployment rate dropped to a very low 4.3%.

The higher staffing demands helped employees negotiate higher wages, too, with average hourly earnings climbing 0.4% in January, up 3.7% over the past year, likely helping household budgets regain some ground on the higher cost of living.

January’s hiring jump was a big shift from the past year, where the federal government slashed staff and businesses largely froze hiring even more than initially estimated. Following an annual data revision, the Labor Department reported that American employers hired an average of just 15,000 people per month in 2025, the slowest on record outside the pandemic recession and a tenth of the typical pace seen in healthy periods for the economy. For job seekers, opportunities are still scarce compared to pre-recession norms in many industries, but wages are growing. Businesses still have the upper hand in hiring and salary negotiations.

▶️ Cold weather put the real estate market on ice last month.

According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously-owned homes plummeted 8.4% in January, the largest monthly dropoff in nearly four years. The NAR blames at least some of that on the severe winter storms last month. Home sales activity is at its slowest since December 2023, down 4.4% over the past year across the country. Fewer properties changing hands means lower incomes for real estate agents and related services like movers, inspectors, and contractors.

More homes are coming to market, making things more affordable. The median sale price rose to $396,800 in January, down over 8% from the summer but about 1% higher than last January. Over the past year, rising prices and mortgage costs have strained buyers’ budgets, and homeowners haven’t rushed to sell their homes, keeping supply limited. While there are 3.4% more homes on the market than a year ago, it’s still not enough for a buyer’s market. In this market, sellers find holding power, but buyers should budget more time and resources to close the deal.

▶️ Stocks sank on Thursday as investors grew more worried about artificial intelligence disrupting entire businesses and leading to more layoffs.

The idea that AI would spur massive productivity improvements across the economy, boosting profitability, had fueled the market rally over the past year or so. However, in the past two weeks, investors’ perspectives have shifted starkly negative.

Tech giants have long acted as innovative cash machines, delivering massive profits for investors and driving the market higher. But now, the high costs of AI computing have those same market-leading tech giants burning their cash at unprecedented levels, making them less attractive investments.

Also, as investors have started seeing more practical implementations of AI, they’ve gotten more worried about business disruption than productivity acceleration. Shares of companies across various industries, from financials to logistics and even office property firms, tumbled as investors worried about potential AI-driven job losses. While some view this as a temporary overreaction to new AI products and an expected correction after a long rally, it points to a real fear about technology replacing roles across industries beyond just tech itself.

🚩 Americans are carrying more debt, and stress is building beneath the surface.

The New York Federal Reserve said total household debt rose to a record $18.8 trillion at the end of 2025, with balances increasing across mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student debt. The total amount increasing is normal, given rising prices and more payments shifting to credit cards, but people are struggling to manage those debts.

More Americans are relying on credit cards to cover the rising cost of living, and they’re quickly falling behind on payments. Delinquencies have worsened beyond the depths of the pandemic recession, approaching the worst levels of the Great Financial Crisis. The percentage of credit card debt, auto loans, and other kinds of retail installment loans more than 90 days past due is higher than at any time in the last decade. Overall delinquency rates edged up to 4.8%, and mortgage delinquencies are rising faster in lower-income areas, pointing to growing financial strain for some households.

Student loan borrowers haven’t handled restarted payments well. About 9.6% of student loan balances are now at least 90 days past due, and student loans going into serious delinquency surged to 16.2% as repayments resumed. The data underscore a widening divide: higher-income households remain supported by rising stock market and real estate values, while lower-income borrowers face tougher tradeoffs as high living costs and a slower salary raises squeeze budgets.

👉 So, things haven’t been great, as you likely know. But, there are some optimistic signals.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.