Hey friends - happy Friday. Seeing Harry Styles this weekend at MSG. Yes, my wife got the tickets. No, she didn’t have to twist my arm.

Also, if you’re looking for something cool to add to the calendar this month, my wife has her first month-long solo gallery show in NYC. The opening night is sure to be filled with cool people and great art. Check it out.

🌎 The Big Picture

Here's what you need to know this week:

• September was a messy month for the stock market

• Borrowing costs went up a lot.

• People are spending more and saving less, and prices aren't letting up.

• Millions are about to see more of their paycheck disappear into health coverage.

▶️ September was good and bad in the market, depending on where you looked.

The broad S&P 500 index ended only 0.5% down for the month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index climbed 1.9%. Pulling back to the full third quarter, the S&P 500 finished up 2%, with the Nasdaq closing 2.5% higher. So a lot of ups and downs, but no huge momentum in any direction.

Tech investors rode out some bumpy days around AI, some rattled by safety regulation talks, others lifted by new launches like Meta's personal agents.

The real drama was in the bond market. It got a lot more expensive for anyone to borrow.

The Federal Reserve raised its short-term benchmark rate by a quarter point in September, its first interest rate increase in three years after holding steady since 2022. The new range sits at 3.75% to 4%, aimed at slowing borrowing and spending to fight inflation.

Meanwhile, investors pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.3%, a full 1.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. That’s what investors demand on US government debt. Three things drove it: heavy government overspending, war-related price inflation, and booming business.

Why does this hit home? Banks use the Treasury yield as a benchmark for mortgage rates and other long-term debt. The average 30-year mortgage passed 7% in September, up from 6.3% a year ago. Back in 2021, it was 2.6%. That's nearly three times more expensive for anyone buying a home today.

Plus, higher yields mean bonds and savings accounts and cash pay more. That’s great for savers, and it makes taking on the volatility of the stock market to grow your money a little less appealing in comparison.

Oil prices bounced around all month alongside shifting hopes for a U.S.-Iran diplomatic resolution. No clear direction there yet.

It was a noisy month, but there were some big trends appearing.

▶️ People are spending more and saving less as prices keep climbing.

Incomes barely kept pace with rising costs in August, but that didn't stop people from spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis found that spending surged even after accounting for higher prices.

More spending meant less saving. Americans set aside just 4.1% of their after-tax income, down from July and well below the 6% to 8% they were saving each month before the pandemic.

Gas did a lot of the damage, jumping 4.4% in a single month. Overall prices ran 3.4% higher than a year ago, so something that cost $100 last year now costs $103.40. That's well above the 2% target for annual price inflation policymakers shoot for. It's good news that spending hasn't slowed down, but families are getting squeezed trying to build any kind of cushion.

▶️ Millions of Americans are about to see more of their paycheck swallowed by health coverage.

Employers are bracing for the biggest jump in health costs in over two decades. About 160 million Americans under 65 get insurance through work. Marsh surveyed more than 1,800 employers and found companies expect to pay 8.2% more per worker in 2027, after an already painful 6.7% jump projected for this year. Aon thinks it could hit close to 10%.

A few things are pushing costs up. More workers are using popular weight-loss drugs, doctors are using AI to file more claims at higher billing levels, and out-of-network providers are winning bigger payouts under the No Surprises Act. Each factor can add up to a percentage point on its own.

In response, 59% of employers are planning changes like higher deductibles, and about two-thirds of large employers expect to raise the share of premiums workers pay. Many workers will see deductions rise by more than 8.2%. If you get health insurance through your job, start factoring this into your budget now.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.