Monday's Scoop: Solid☀️

Hey friends - hope you had a great weekend.

As a heads-up, there will be no scoops on Wednesday. I’ll be traveling to Minneapolis to exhibit our new Pro Content Suite for financial planners at the XYPN Live planners conference. If you’ll be there, let me know!

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments:

1. Rent prices have started coming down.

2. Businesses aren’t really dealing with rising supply costs anymore.

3. People are still frustrated with high prices.

Inflation Rate: +2.4% (YoY), +0.2% (MoM)
^{Policymakers aim for 2% YoY inflation (September CPI)}

Americans are still frustrated with the higher cost of living, even if prices have stopped climbing so quickly. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index slipped in October. This dip is partly due to ongoing worries about high prices. The percentage of people citing high prices for worse financial conditions hasn’t really dropped over the past year, even though inflation is much slower now. People expect the cost of living to rise by 2.9% over the next year, up from 2.7% last month. Inflation expectations are important because if people think costs will keep rising, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy—businesses might raise prices, and consumers could change their spending habits. Since consumer spending powers about two-thirds of the economy, this cautious mood could influence economic growth in the coming months.

Businesses aren’t really dealing with rising supply costs anymore. The Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged last month, while economists had expected a slight increase. Costs for services climbed while goods got cheaper. Over the past year, prices for the stuff businesses spend money on have risen just 1.8%, much less than prices for consumers, indicating that business costs are stabilizing. This could help keep inflation down for consumers.

30yr Mortgage Rate: 6.4%
^{That’s down from 7.5% a year ago. (MBA)}
Median Existing Home Price: $416,700
^{That’s up from $404K a year ago. (NAR)}

Rents are finally dropping a bit in America’s most expensive market, but finding a good deal is still tough. According to a report by Douglas Elliman Real Estate and Miller Samuel, the median rent in Manhattan has fallen by 3.4% from last year to $4,200 in September—still just $200 less than the all-time high set last summer. While rents have inched down in four of the past five months, they're still 20% higher than they were before the pandemic in 2019. The number of new leases jumped 40% compared to last year, and nearly one in five involved bidding wars, so competition is fierce. So, if you're apartment hunting in New York, you might see a slight price break, but big bargains are still hard to come by.

The Market: ⬆️ +0.8%
S&P 500: 5,859.85
1Mo: +4% | 1Yr: +34% | 5Yr: +96%

The market soared to another new record high on Monday as investors celebrated a solid start to the upcoming flurry of corporate third-quarter financial updates. Big banks and industrial giants kicked things off with optimistic words about business spending and Americans' financial health.