Monday's Scoop: Rolling🌤️

Hey friends - we’re back! I hope you didn’t miss your scoops too much.

Here’s what you need to know today to inform your work, spending, and investments:

1. Business activity is still pretty strong.

2. The government doesn’t have a budget but should avoid a shutdown.

3. Stamp prices will finally stop climbing.

Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
^{Relatively normal, low}

Business activity is still pretty steady. S&P Global reported that its composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated a continued expansion in activity across both manufacturing and services sectors last month. The manufacturing sector has been in a slump for a while, and activity hit a 15-month low last month, but it only accounts for about a tenth of the economy. However, the cost of goods and services saw the fastest increase in six months, primarily driven by wage hikes in the services industry. Despite these rising costs, the US economy is still growing at a solid pace overall.

The government hasn’t figured out its annual budget yet, but it should be able to avoid a shutdown. The US House of Representatives is working to prevent a partial government shutdown with a new three-month stopgap funding bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced the proposal just days before the current $1.2 trillion in discretionary funding expires on September 30. The bill, which excludes a controversial immigration measure demanded by Donald Trump, aims to extend government funding through December 20. This effort follows the rejection of a previous six-month proposal that included stricter voter registration requirements. Lawmakers are now racing to secure a bipartisan agreement and avoid a shutdown that could furlough federal workers and disrupt services.

Inflation Rate: +2.5% (YoY), +0.2% (MoM)
^{Policymakers aim for 2% YoY inflation (August CPI)}

Stamp prices will finally stop climbing. For the first time since 2022, the US Postal Service (USPS) will not raise stamp prices in January. This decision follows a series of price hikes, including the most recent increase in July when the cost of a first-class stamp rose to 73 cents. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy cited declining inflation projections as a reason for the pause, with no price increases expected before July 2025. Despite efforts to restructure and cut costs, USPS continues to grapple with financial challenges, reporting a $6.5 billion net loss last year as first-class mail volume hit its lowest since 1968. The USPS has raised stamp prices by 36% since early 2019 to try to cover its costs.

The Market: ⬆️ +0.3%
S&P 500: 5,718.57
1Mo: +2% | 1Yr: +32% | 5Yr: +93%

The market climbed to a new record high on Monday as investors continued the positive momentum from the Federal Reserve's policy update last week. The Fed lowered baseline interest rates for the first time in years, signaling an end to a period of policy aimed at restricting the economy.